Top 5 Defensemen Who Have Taken a Step in 25-26
With the 25-26 NHL season in full swing, I wanted to dive in to find the defensemen who have not just played well, but have genuinely taken a massive step forward since last year. Today I will take a look at the Top 5 most improved blue liners so far this year (plus a few Honorable Mentions).
Who is eligible?
To ensure I’m comparing apples-to-apples and measuring player development within a stable environment, the following rules have been applied which have resulted in a list of 170 eligible defensemen:
Have played at least 10 games this season and 20 games in the 24-25 season
Minimum of 10 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time per game
Did NOT change teams in the offseason.
How is performance evaluated?
The analysis will rank player’s year-over-year (YoY) change in 5 key stats (i.e. defensemen will be ranked 1 through 170 five times). Each defenseman’s final rank is determined by averaging their rank across all five metrics.
The metrics are:
Points per game (P/g): How many more points per game are you scoring this year? All game states are included to value dmen who have earned their coach’s trust on the power play.
High Danger Shots Against per Game (HDSA/g): How much more are you suppressing dangerous chances against your team this year? The less high danger chances dmen allow will have a good correlation with strong defensive play.
Time on Ice (TOI): How much more is your coach playing you this year? Ice time is the best measure of a coach’s trust in a player. All game states included to give a boost to players who are used across multiple game states.
5-on-5 Goals For % (5v5 GF%): What percent of goals does your team score during 5-on-5 play when you’re on the ice? (If you have 3 goals for and 1 goal against you have a GF% of 75%). This is a direct measures of on-ice results.
5-on-5 xGoals For % (5v5 xGF%): What percent of goals is your team expected to score during 5-on-5 play when you’re on the ice (using MoneyPuck’s model)? Although expected goals models aren’t perfect, this helps correct for puck luck. This enables the ranking to account for players who are on an unsustainable shooting heater, or who have been consistently facing hot goalies.
Rankings
Below are the final results. For each player, I'll break down their league-wide ranking, alongside their YoY change in each of the five metrics.
| P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.37 (4th) | -0.40 (2nd) | +0:49 (51st) | +6% (52nd) | +2% (51st) |
First up is perennial Norris candidate, Miro Heiskanen. This isn’t a story just about improvement, but an elite player elevating to a dominant level of play. With a clean bill of health, Heiskanen has been a massive component of Dallas’ strong play this season. The 26-year old has found a new gear with 26 points through 30 games, already surpassing last year’s total.
Heiskanen has taken huge strides on both ends of the ice and his control over the flow of play is incredible. His world class skating and puck skills make him a huge transition threat night in and night out. His jump of 0.37 points per game is 4th highest in the league, while he’s performed even better at the defensive end of the ice, reducing high danger shots at the 2nd best rate league-wide.
Heiskanen has historically been a workhorse for the Stars, so his jump in TOI is relatively modest, which impacts his overall ranking. However, he is perpetually on the right side of the play, reflected by a very impressive 6% jump in actual goals for at 5v5. While his high baseline gives him a steep hill to climb in most metrics, his presence on this list proves the Stars are thriving with him on the ice.
Will this be the year Heiskanen finally pushes through and wins a Norris trophy? He’s making a compelling case.
| P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.20 (18th) | -0.02 (60th) | +2:19 (15th) | +17% (6th) | +8% (10th) |
Based on roster projections, it looks like he’s on the outside looking in at Team USA, but that doesn’t mean Jakob Chychrun isn’t going to make it a difficult decision for Bill Guerin and co.
I’ve always considered Chychrun to be in the second or third tier of top pairing defensemen, but it’s undeniable he’s unlocked a new level since coming to the Capitals. After a very strong campaign in 24-25, he’s off to an incredible start this season with 25 points in 30 games.
With John Carlson entering his mid-thirties, coach Spencer Carbery has started to pass the torch to Chychrun, who has benefitted from a massive +2:19 jump in ice time per game (15th overall). And he’s been value for money in those minutes! His elite shooting has helped drive an offensive spike in his actual and expected goal scoring metrics which both rank in top-10 league-wide.
While he’s currently running in place on high danger shots against, his offence is undeniable. My one call out is that his 17% jump in outscoring will likely come back down to earth a bit, especially if his defensive suppression continues at the same rate as last year. Still, Chychrun’s performance to-date this year has me considering if I should only use candles to light my house after dinnertime.
| P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.46 (1st) | -0.21 (17th) | +1:05 (38th) | +11% (26th) | +5% (27th) |
I have trouble thinking of a defensemen whose value has peaked and cratered more often than Shayne Gostisbehere’s over the past decade. Every other season he’s a demon on the powerplay, and sending incredible breakout passes every night. Just as often, however, he finds a way to play himself down the line up and eventually out of town. It seems he’s finally found a team that has unlocked him: the Carolina Hurricanes.
Gostisbehere has always been known for his offence, but this season he’s contributing everywhere. His pace early in the season is a marvel: Gostisbehere is playing at over a point per game pace on his way to a +0.46 increase in points-per-game (1st of all 170 eligible dmen). This offense hasn’t come at the cost of playing quality on the defensive side of the puck either. Opponents are getting fewer high danger shots against him (17th best YoY improvement) and this shows as his team is tilting the ice to the tune of 5% more expected goals this season with him on the ice than last. His actual goals have followed suit, with an 11% change since 24-25 as well.
Gostisbehere has been one of the leagues best defensemen so far this year, he’s run into some injury worries. Despite being relatively durable throughout his career, he’s already logged a lower-body injury and suffered a setback in his first game back. Hopefully he gets back out on the ice soon.
| P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.01 (74th) | -0.35 (3rd) | +2:40 (7th) | +14% (15th) | +11% (6th) |
J.J. who? After three pretty famous defensemen, J.J. Moser represents our first unsung hero on the list. The Swiss-born defenseman is playing in his 5th NHL season where he’s emerged as a rock-solid contributor for the powerhouse Tampa Bay Lightning.
Moser’s counting stats won’t jump out at you. He doesn’t play much at all on the PP and he’s running in place with his scoring rates last year. However, a defenseman’s primary job is not allowing good chances and making sure the puck spends as little time in their zone as possible. Moser has made huge steps in these areas this year.
He’s suppressed high danger shots per game at the third highest rate this year (-0.35 YoY). This is even more impressive considering he’s playing almost 3 minutes more per night, good for 7th in the league. It’s no surprise John Cooper continues to call his number either, because the Lightning are a juggernaut with him on the ice at even-strength.
Moser has driven possession at an extremely high level this year. His expected goal rate is at 61%(!!) this year, up from 50% a year ago and the Lightning are scoring about 70% of the goals with him on the ice. That’s about as unstoppable as you can get.
What an under the radar breakout season. With his relatively pedestrian numbers last year, it’s no surprise to see him rank so highly on the list. I’ll be very curious to see if he can keep up this quality of play when the checking inevitably gets tighter later in the year.
| P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.24 (16th) | -0.34 (5th) | +2:34 (8th) | +9% (33rd) | +11% (5th) |
I had to triple check my numbers before I wrote this. How is a Buffalo Sabre the most improved defenseman in 2025-26?! This is the most cursed franchise in North American sports, en route to a 15th straight season outside of the playoffs. Well, let’s just say things would be a lot worse for the Sabres if Mattias Samuelsson was playing like he did last year.
Samuelsson has earned the title of most improved defenseman by becoming Buffalo’s defensive heartbeat. He’s managed to eat into both Owen Power’s and Bowen Byram’s icetime to the tune of a 2:34 increase per game.
In his new role, he’s been absolute money. He’s the only Buffalo dman with a positive goal differential at even strength, and he’s deserved every bit of that differential and more. His strong play on the ice is backed up with a top 5 ranking in expected goals for (11% improvement from last season), helping out the lowly Sabres. On top of tilting the ice, his improvement in defensive play is impressive, posting the 5th best reduction in high danger shots against league-wide.
Samuelsson has modest career scoring numbers, so his jump to 12 points in 27 games this year is good for 16th in the league. With 5 goals already (a career-high), he’s likely shooting with a bit of luck, so this point production may be hard pressed to keep up for the rest of the year.
Regardless of his likely offensive regression, Mattias Samuelsson’s incredible strides in puck possession and defensive skills have turned him into one of this season’s stand out defensive specialists. He’s one of the lone bright spots in another gloomy Buffalo Sabres season.
| Player | P/g | HDSA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Borgen, NYR | +0.00 (87th) | -0.23 (15th) | +1:37 (26th) | +16% (11th) | +6% (22nd) |
| Nikolas Matinpalo, OTT | +0.11 (39th) | -0.31 (10th) | +2:25 (12th) | -2.61 (97th) | +12% (4th) |
| Moritz Seider, DET | +0.20 (19th) | -0.14 (33rd) | +0:01 (81st) | +10% (31st) | +9% (8th) |
As seen on the Top 5 list of forwards who have taken a step, there is a mix of established star players having incredible seasons and journeymen who have blossomed in a larger role on the back line. What unites our Top 5 Most Improved Defensemen, from the high flying Heiskanen to the analytical darling Samuelsson, is a commitment to foundational improvement beyond scoring stats. All of the defensemen highlighted today have increased their roles, improved in their own zone, and pushed the puck (and the scoreboard) in the right direction and I’m looking forward to tracking whether this sustained, two-way dominance continues through the second half of the 25-26 season.
All advanced statistics used for this analysis are courtesy of MoneyPuck.
