Trade Grades: Oilers strike pair of deals with Preds and Pens
You don’t often see December trades in the NHL. However, on Friday morning, the Oilers made a splash on a couple of deals with the Penguins and the Predators.
Deal 1:
EDM Receives: Tristan Jarry (G), Samuel Poulin (F)
PIT Receives: Brett Kulak (LD), Stuart Skinner (G), 2029 2nd round pick
Edmonton gets:
Tristan Jarry (30) is a 300 game NHL veteran with some standout seasons on his resume. However, he’s signed to a substantial cap hit ($5.375M through the 27-28 season) and has faced injury and performance concerns over the past two seasons. He earned his contract extension on merit, but has generally struggled to consistently prove his worth since.
Sam Poulin (24) is a former first round pick (2019) and a strong AHLer. He’s played 15 NHL games in parts of four seasons. At this stage in his career, he might have marginal upside but I’d consider him a throw in on the deal.
Pittsburgh gets:
Brett Kulak (31) is a veteran left-handed defenseman who was in his fifth season on the Edmonton blue line. He’s a steady two-way presence, usually filling in on the bottom pair, but trusted to play up the line-up should injuries hit. He’s been consistent in Edmonton, but was off to quite a rough start this year. He has a cap hit of $2.75M and is a pending UFA.
Stuart Skinner (27) was a drafted and developed Oiler talent. Once considered a massive building block, his stats and quality of play have trended down over the past 2-3 seasons. Despite his experience for a player his age, the hockey community has generally soured on his value given his stats, especially contrasted with the quality of the team around him. He is a pending UFA with a $2.6M cap hit.
A 2029 2nd-round pick. This will likely be a late pick given the Oilers team trajectory. Generally speaking a pick at this point in the draft has a 10-15% chance of delivering an NHLer.
Verdict: Edmonton pays dearly for debatable upgrade in net. Pittsburgh make out like bandits.
Edmonton fans have clamored for a Stuart Skinner trade for two seasons, and management finally pulled the trigger. The sticker price looks quite shocking from here. Though it’s probable Jarry will offer some sort of upgrade in net, Edmonton paid steeply on several fronts.
High-Risk: Despite a nice start, Jarry has plenty of question marks. Just last year, he was being spoken about as a prime buy-out candidate.
Asset Management: A (likely late) 2nd-round pick isn’t a hugely valuable asset, but giving it up without any retention in return from Pittsburgh is not great asset management.
The Cap: The biggest issue in my opinion is the cap. On top of the lack of retention, both Skinner and Kulak were UFAs at the end of the season. This deal has the Oilers footing a $5.5M hit through the 27-28 season.
The Oilers are betting on huge upside today, but are kicking the can down the road for what is already an aging, capped out team full of no-movement clauses. Skinner, despite his career-low value, is still young and very experienced. I’d bet on him having a successful remainder of his career (see Devan Dubnyk’s career arc)
Deal 2
EDM Receives: Spencer Stastney (LD)
NSH Receives: 2027 3rd-round pick
Spencer Stastney (25) Is a younger, cost-controlled left-shot defenseman who has only recently become a full-time NHL player (25-26 season). He has a cap hit of $825k and is an RFA at the end of this season.
Verdict: A crafty, under-the-radar acquisition at low cost
With a hole at LHD, Oilers adeptly replaced Brett Kulak with a younger, cheaper option who is trending positively early in his NHL career.
Based on a number of metrics, Stastney taken a significant step forward this season. He’s improved offensively, seeing his points per game, shot attempts both increase meaningfully from 24-25. Nashville is playing well when he is on the ice to the tune of 52% expected goals and 50% actual goals. Defensively, his giveaways and high-danger shots against have also dropped since last season. Really impressive results across the board.
Interestingly, he’s getting 1 minute less TOI this year than last. Given their results over the last couple of years, I have a feeling Nashville is undervaluing him. With the acquisition of Spencer Stastney, I think the Oilers successfully identified and acquired a serviceable, high-upside asset for a very reasonable price.
