Top 5 Forwards Who Have Taken a Step in 25-26
Playing consistently year over year in the NHL is a difficult feat. Players often perform repeatably across one metric (McDavid always finds a way to 100+ points, Patrice Bergeron was always near the top of Selke voting), but if you look at the bigger picture, no two seasons are alike for the vast majority of NHLers.
With the 25-26 season well underway, I am looking for the players who have improved the most since the 24-25 season. This post will give flowers to the Top 5 Forwards (as well as some honourable mentions) who have genuinely elevated their play this year.
Who is eligible?
Forwards who meet the following criteria were included for consideration:
Have played at least 10 games this season and 20 games in the 24-25 season
Played an average of at least 10 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time per game in both the 25-26 and 24-25 seasons.
Did NOT change teams in the offseason. This is probably a bit controversial, but I wanted to normalize as much as possible for team effects. I’ll create another post on players who moved during the offseason.
How is performance evaluated?
To look beyond raw stats, 5 key metrics have been used to create a rating system. The analysis focuses on year-over-year (YoY) change for each metric (i.e. if you scored 1.00 points-per-game last year and 1.10 points-per game this year, you have a YoY change of +0.10). A player’s final rank is determined by averaging their league-wide rank across all five metrics.
They are:
Primary Points per Game (pPoints/g): How many more points per game are you scoring this year? Second assists are not considered to ensure primary play drivers are rewarded. All game states are included here to value players who have earned their coach’s trust on the power play.
Shot Attempts per Game (SA/g): How much more are you putting the puck on net this year? Total shot attempts (including blocked and missed shots) is a good measure of how often the player is possessing the puck in dangerous areas where they have a chance to score, or create a rebound.
Time on Ice (TOI): How much more is your coach playing you this year? Ice time is the best measure of a coach’s trust in a player. All game states included here as well to give a boost to players who are used across multiple game states.
5-on-5 Goals For % (5v5 GF%): What percent of goals does your team score during 5-on-5 play when you’re on the ice? (If you have 3 goals for and 1 goal against you have a GF% of 75%). This is a direct measures of on-ice results. A higher percentage indicates the player is contributing to positive outcomes for their team while they’re on the ice.
5-on-5 xGoals For % (5v5 xGF%): What percent of goals is your team expected to score during 5-on-5 play when you’re on the ice (using MoneyPuck’s model)? Although expected goals models aren’t perfect, this helps correct for puck luck. This enables the ranking to account for players who are on an unsustainable shooting heater, or who have been consistently facing hot goalies.
Rankings
Without further ado, let’s get into the rankings. Information below will display the top 5 players, their YoY change in the metric and the rank of this change across all 265 eligible forwards in the analysis.
For example below, Bedard has increased his primary points per game by 0.64 from last season, and this is the 2nd highest mark in the analysis.
| pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.24 (19th) | +1.80 (3rd) | +2:09 (21st) | +14% (19th) | +2% (92nd) |
Robertson’s 109 points back in 22-23 put him on the map in a major way, but with 80 points in each of the last two seasons, his stock had fallen a bit heading into this season, and there had been rumours he could be on the move. However, Robertson has absolutely slammed the door on those talks with an incredible start to the current season.
Robertson has shown a notable increase in his willingness to shoot (3rd best in the analysis), and has been rewarded by new coach Glen Gulutzan with about 2 more minutes of ice time per game. These jumps in production and coach's trust are huge for a player who was already performing at a high-to-elite level throughout his career.
However, we do see a gap between the 2% change in xGF vs the 14% change in GF. This suggests that, while the Stars are winning his minutes at a higher rate than last year, the quality of chances being generated are more or less on par with 24-25. Robertson may have rediscovered his elite finishing skills, or he might be scoring unsustainably right now. Either way, he has made the top 5 on merit, even if he might regress a bit as the year continues.
| pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.64 (2nd) | +1.69 (4th) | +0:57 (58th) | +11% (32nd) | +5% (49th) |
Next up is Olympic hopeful Connor Bedard (he absolutely deserves to be there in my opinion). Many would argue he’d be the front runner for the NHL’s most improved player this year (the NHL should make this an actual award), and given his performance so far this year I’d be hard pressed not to agree.
After some serious questions last season, Bedard has successfully transitioned from wonderkid to bonafide superstar. He’s built on his flashes of brilliance to become a dominant player night in and night out. He’s stronger on the puck, winning more battles, and has shown a more fiery and competitive attitude against opponents (and sometimes even referees!).
The eye-test is backed up by statistics as Bedard has seen a massive jump in offensive production this year with Primary Points and Shot Attempts both ranking top 5 league-wide in this analysis.
Despite Bedard’s “disappointing” season last year, he was still one of the top options on the Hawks roster, so his TOI hasn’t increased as much as other players in this study, which knocked his overall ranking. As we saw with Robertson above, Bedard’s actual performance in goals for is outpacing his expected goals (though both remain positive YoY), but by a smaller margin. As long as the bottom doesn’t fall out from the young Hawks as games start to be checked tighter, I’m confident Bedard will remain on pace this year.
| pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.37 (6th) | +0.75 (37th) | +2:04 (23rd) | +12% (28th) | +6% (33rd) |
Tyler Bertuzzi was signed by the Blackhawks in the 2024 offseason to a modest $5.5M cap hit, but his 46-point campaign (along with a minus-39!) on a struggling team led was considered pretty disappointing. This year, however, has been night and day for him as he finds himself playing as a perfect complimentary player to the aforementioned Bedard.
Though Bertuzzi’s offensive counting stats aren’t as gaudy as Bedard, his bar was set much lower last year, which has resulted in him slotting in nicely right in front of his teammate at 3rd place on this list. The biggest change for Bertuzzi this year is his even strength play-driving and power play production, where he’s clearly earned the trust of his new/old (Red Wings) head coach Jeff Blashill.
Bertuzzi scored in the top-40 league-wide in every single metric of this analysis, demonstrating growth across the board. His Primary Points change ranks 6th in the league, showing that he’s become a much more important part of the Blackhawk’s offense this season.
Bertuzzi won’t be up for any year end rewards as he will always play in the shadow of his generational teammate, but it would be foolish to think that his complete turnaround hasn’t played a major role in Chicago’s unexpected improvement early this season.
| pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.45 (5th) | +2.43 (1st) | +4:00 (1st) | +8% (55th) | +5% (49th) |
Sophomore slump who? Coming in at runner-up is Cutter Gauthier, who has had an incredible start to the season with Anaheim. Not only has he earned a spot on Coach Quenneville’s top line, he’s taken a massive leap on his scoring rates where he is on pace for 91 points through 28 games (more than double his output of 44 points from 24-25).
Gauthier has surpassed all expectations with his role elevation on the upstart Ducks. He’s everywhere on the ice, and his elite skating is putting him in a position to shoot seemingly every time he has the puck in the offensive zone. The Ducks’ coaching staff clearly likes his play style, and has put him on the ice for an extra 4 minutes per night (!!) through the first ~30 games of the season.
A closer look at the numbers show that Gauthier still has some growth opportunities on the defensive side of the game. Although he’s taken steps since last year, his goals for rate is meaningfully lower than the other members on this list. This suggests that while he’s scoring at an elite clip, the puck is going in almost as much at the other end. Perhaps the extra minutes have come at a bit of a defensive price. However, this is not a major concern, as he’s only 21 and is already an elite offensive driver. If he figures out the 200 foot game, it won’t be long before he’s considered a top 10 player in the league.
You have to think if Danny Briere and the Flyers org are beginning to question their trade a couple years ago as Jamie Drysdale hasn’t popped. I wonder if John Tortorella knows who is he yet…
| pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.24 (17th) | +0.86 (26th) | +2:04 (24th) | +12% (27th) | +9% (11th) |
I bet you didn’t guess this one... Our most improved forward so far in the 2025-26 season is the Nashville Predators' own, Luke Evangelista. His modest point totals (19 in 27 games) and relative anonymity compared to the stars on this list certainly don’t make him leap off the page. However, he has earned the number one spot through consistent, sustainable excellence across all five metrics.
On a Predators team that has disappointed much more than impressed recently, Evangelista has quietly been a bright spot, turning into a top-six contributor after a pretty pedestrian 24-25 season. Similar to Tyler Bertuzzi, but even better, Evangelista ranked within the top 30 league-wide in every single category of this analysis. This across-the-board consistency is why he tops the list.
What is really impressive is that his on-ice scoring rates match his expected rates. This means he is playing sustainably right now, and his success is driven by legitimately improving chance quality, not just puck luck. Known primarily as a playmaker, if he can find chemistry with an elite finishing winger, he will be a strong candidate to pop and could easily become a household name at this time next year.
Nashville signed him to a steal of a deal ($3M/2 years) back in October. You have to think if he continues his strong play, he’ll be due for a big raise in the future (once NSH figures out what to do with their underperforming veteran core). Evangelista is a sleeper pick for me to become a high-end NHLer in the future. For now, he is the definitive answer to the question: Who has taken the biggest step forward in the 25-26 season?
| Player | pPoints/g | SA/g | TOI | 5v5 GF% | 5v5 xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson, ANA | +0.48 (4th) | +2.26 (2nd) | +3:44 (2nd) | +2% (108th) | +5% (49th) |
| Shane Pinto, OTT | +0.14 (46th) | +1.10 (14th) | +1:24 (45th) | +9% (39th) | +6% (35th) |
| Mark Kastelic, BOS | +.06 (93rd) | +1.01 (17th) | +3:00 (7th) | +18% (10th) | +4% (70th) |
This list demonstrates that there isn’t one way to take a step forward in the NHL. While traditionally we give this title to players who have their point totals pop, I wanted to take a more rounded view and give flowers to other players who have grown across multiple facets of the game.
Stay Tuned
Next up on 200 Foot Blogger, we’ll pivot to the other side of the puck where you can expect to see the Top 5 Defensemen Who Have Taken a Step This Season.
All advanced statistics used for this analysis, including Primary Points per Game, Shot Attempts per Game, and the 5-on-5 Goal/Expected Goal metrics, are courtesy of MoneyPuck.
