2026 Norris Trophy Predictions: Top 10 Defensemen Ranked
As per NHL.com, the James Norris Memorial Award is awarded to “the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position”. I interpret this as the defenseman who impacts both ends of the ice at an elite level, contributing not only to high-end offense, but also actively suppressing the other team’s best players. Images of players like Chris Pronger, Duncan Keith and Nicklas Lidstrom pop to mind. However, in recent years, there has been a sentiment that the Norris has shifted towards offensive defenseman. The last 5 winners are Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Erik Karlsson, Cale Makar and Adam Fox. Not exactly guys you see clearing the net-front or eating pucks on a regular basis.
As hockey has evolved over the years, becoming a faster and more skilled sport, so has the thinking on what a good defenseman should do. Instead of explaining it myself, I’ll leave it to Stanley Cup winning coach Darryl Sutter:
“The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play”
With this in mind, my interpretation of the modern Norris trophy is that it should go to the defenseman who most contributes to their team’s success, while playing against the other team’s top players. I would also argue that the Norris winner should miss no more than 10 games and their team should make the playoffs.
Here’s a quick view my top 10 defensemen this year (in no particular order):
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69, 21-57-78, +11 | 26:26 | 26% | 38% | 57% / 49% |
Pros: Today’s betting favourite to win the Norris. Werenski is putting together a massive season all across the board. He’s 2nd in points for dmen, plays his minutes against the heart of the order and significantly boosts Columbus’ outscoring numbers when he hops on the ice.
Cons: The major case against him winning will be if Columbus misses the cut on the playoffs. They’ve been sliding badly in the last couple of weeks.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76, 20-67-87, +22 | 24:40 | 36% | 37% | 55% / 43% |
Pros: As an offensive defenseman, he’s lapping the competition with 87 points in 76 games. He is the benefactor of a lethal powerplay, but has continued to put up numbers since Draisaitl has gone down with injury. The Oilers are a mess without him on the ice, but his breakout passes and vision turn them into an offensive juggernaut.
Cons: Can Bouchard finally win over the haters? He’s developed a poor reputation defensively, and has some very famous gaffes on video, despite the Oilers sparkling numbers with him on the ice.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73, 20-55-75, +29 | 24:53 | 39% | 36% | 64% / 62% |
Pros: Colorado is dominant with Makar on the ice, and he’s barely skipped a beat stats-wise this year as he continues to play at a point per game pace.
Cons: Colorado is equally as dominant with Makar off the ice. He’s done nothing to really separate himself from the pack, and his numbers have faded a bit in the New Year.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69, 6-67-73, -2 | 27:56 | 45% | 33% | 52% / 51% |
Pros: Sees more ice time than anyone else in the league, and has turned the Wild into a legitimate contender. The Olympic gold medalist is silky smooth, and one of the most fun players to watch in the game.
Cons: Although it’s hard to hold against him, his 26 games for the awful Canucks really impact his full-season picture. He put up a -10 on the coast and he’s only got 6 goals all season, far fewer than his peers.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75, 11-62-73, +34 | 27:56 | 26% | 30% | 62% / 48% |
Pros: Hutson has put up an impeccable sophomore season. Montreal is nowhere near the playoffs without him. Having a +14% goal share swing on the ice is incredibly hard to do. He’ll be a Norris threat for years to come.
Cons: Hutson still doesn’t play against the top level consistently enough across the league. Right now, Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson are playing harder minutes, giving Hutson more favourable matchups against lesser players.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75, 9-45-54, +22 | 25:42 | 44% | 37% | 58% / 38% |
Pros: The Red Wings go as Moritz Seider does. They score 38% of the goals when he’s off the ice. For reference, the league-worst Vancouver Canucks have a goal share of 40%.
Cons: Mo Seider relies on the PP quite a bit for his offensive stats, and although he’s on pace for ~60 points, he’d need to score another 20+ to be heavily considered as a potential Norris winner.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72, 17-50-67, +9 | 24:20 | 33% | 32% | 57% / 52% |
Pros: Dahlin and the Sabres have been one of the feel-good stories of the year. He’s ultra skilled, quarterbacks the powerplay, and gets under the opponent’s skin.
Cons: Against his Norris peers, Dahlin does everything pretty well, but isn’t the very best at anything. Some die-hard Buffalo plans may argue Mattias Samuelsson has had a better season than Dahlin. He also isn’t relied upon for the PK.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77, 22-35-57, +16 | 24:36 | 32% | 39% | 57% / 43% |
Pros: What a season by the rookie sensation. As of today, he leads dmen in goals, plays against the league’s best, and outscores opposition with ease. He’s a virtual lock for the Calder Trophy, and will be a franchise defining superstar for the next decade-plus.
Cons: Despite sparkling numbers across the board, the 25-26 Islanders don’t score enough for Schaefer to put up Norris-level point totals. His near-guaranteed Calder win will make it easier for voters to leave him off the ballot.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74, 9-53-62, +11 | 25:44 | 44% | 34% | 56% / 54% |
Pros: Dallas’ superstar d-man shot of out the blocks this year, putting up 13 points in a 6-game streak in early November. He’s never won a Norris, but has been close on multiple occasions.
Cons: Heiskanen is guilty of playing for a powerhouse team that routinely thrives without him on the ice. He’s faded points-wise as the year has gone on, and hasn’t done anything individually to separate himself from the pack.
| GP, G-A-P, +/- | TOI | % PP Points | % TOI vs Elites | 5v5 GF% With/Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68, 20-46-66, +26 | 22:53 | 38% | 38% | 62% / 55% |
Pros: An absolute buzzsaw for the Lightning that makes a terrific team even better. Possesses a lethal shot, which has netted him 20 goals to date, and plays a ton of minutes against top competition. Has become the perfect player for Tampa as Hedman has dealt with injuries and aging this year.
Cons: Not famous enough yet to win a Norris, and missed games due to injury. If there were a most-improved player award, he’d be a lock for it. Look for him to get a mega-deal as this offseason’s premier UFA dman.
If I had to predict the 3 Norris candidates this year:
Evan Bouchard - Best offensive stats by a mile. Playoff lock. Numbers tell the story of a complete defenseman.
Zach Werenski - Phenomenal season, but a recent collapse has the playoffs looking out of reach for the Blue Jackets. If they make it, he’ll win the Norris.
Moritz Seider - He’ll need a hot end to the year that results in the Wings making the playoffs, but “Defense” will come back in vogue this year. His On/Off goalshare is too good to ignore.
