2026 NHL Playoff Preview: Why Every Team Could Win the Cup or Crash Out
It’s the best time of the year in sports. Baseball and golf are just getting underway, UEFA Champions League knockout rounds are in full swing, and the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us. The first round of the playoffs is can’t miss television. Teams are (mostly) healthy, Bettman’s divisional playoff format gives us heavyweight match-ups, and the physicality and pace of play jump to a new level. Every fan base is drinking their team’s kool-aid. I can’t wait for the festivities to start.
In the reverse order of standings, here’s a reason each team could win the cup this year, and a reason they could crash out in the first round:
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia Flyers
Why They Could Win: Assuming the Hurricanes core continues to disappoint in the playoffs, the Flyers have favourable divisional match-ups, avoiding the powerhouse Atlantic until the conference finals. Owen Tippett has surged in the second half of the season, and they’re getting point-per-game production from rookie Porter Martone.
Why They Could Crash Out: Philly has the 3rd worst combined special teams in the league, unproven goaltending and don’t have a true gamebreaker on their roster. Matvei Michkov could become that player, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll get a major opportunity in tight games under head coach Rick Tocchet.
Boston Bruins
Why They Could Win: Jeremy Swayman has a case for comeback player of the year and David Pastrnak continues to be one of the league’s brightest stars. Riding a hot goalie and an outscoring superstar can be a recipe for success if the rest of your team does not get outscored. Boston has won the even strength scoring battle to a tune of 54% this year.
Why They Could Crash Out: Although even strength play has been a major positive, Boston has ridden a lot of luck this season as they carry a 46% expected 5v5 goalshare into the playoffs. They took almost 40 more penalties than they drew in the regular season, and have the 4th worst PK in the league. If they continue to be undisciplined, they’ll be an easy out in the first round.
Ottawa Senators
Why They Could Win: Between the Tkachuk controversies and Ullmark’s mercurial play, Ottawa has weathered some very difficult days this season. However, they’re gelling at the right time and boast genuine game-breakers in Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson. I also wouldn’t be excited to sign up for 7 games puck battles and post-whistle scrums with Brady Tkachuk.
Why They Could Crash Out: Despite recent strong performances, Ullmark is sitting at an .891 on the season. Even to the most optimistic fan, Ottawa still feels like they are one bad period away from crashing out in spectacular fashion.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Why They Could Win: Everyone outside of the Pens locker room wrote them off at the start of the season. Seven months later, Dan Muse is a likely Jack Adams nominee, Erik Karlsson and Anthony Mantha have had major bounceback years, and Pittsburgh is cruising into the playoffs. Everytime they’ve lost a player to injury, another steps up. The playoffs are all about depth, and it’s hard to find a team with more contributors up and down the roster.
Why They Could Crash Out: The Penguins core are all well into their 30s, and everyone but Anthony Mantha has missed time this year. Their injury list continues to grow and it’s hard not to wonder if they’ll be able to continue finding solutions with more and more talent out of the lineup. Even if they make it past a round or two, their health is a major question mark.
Montreal Canadiens
Why They Could Win: 50 goal scorer? Check. 100 point centre? Check. Calder-nominated rookie? All but certain. Norris nominated d-man? Maybe. The Canadiens rebuild has all come together this year. They are extremely talented up and down the line up, and have one of the most intimidating rinks in the league to play on as a road team.
Why They Could Crash Out: Past Suzuki and Caufield (who were rookies during the Habs bubble run) and a couple of role players, there is very little playoff experience on the roster. Teams who win the cup usually build towards it after several heartbreaking playoff exits. Montreal got some great experience last year, and will again this year, but this Habs team might not be tested enough to win it all yet.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Why They Could Win: The class of the East. Despite a change of the guard (off years by Point & Hedman, breakout years for Raddysh & Moser), Kucherov and co are primed for a cup or bust year. Tampa has no real weaknesses. They’re top 5 in goal share and expected goal share, they have strong special teams and they’re extremely physical. No one would be surprised if they won it all this year.
Why They Could Crash Out: Despite never posting a sub-.900 in the regular season, Andrei Vasilievskiy has been below the mark for the past three playoff years. He’s allowed 55 goals in their last 16 playoff games. He’s been sensational again in the regular season with a .913, but this is enough of a sample size that it’s worth speaking about. If Vasi falters, career .889 Jonas Johansson will not be able to carry the load.
Buffalo Sabres
Why They Could Win: Ending a 15 year playoff drought, the Sabres are the feel good story of the year. They didn’t just squeak in either, they earned it on the back of incredible team play up and down the line up. They’re young, fast, healthy and have playoff experience marbled throughout the lineup (Tuch, McLeod, Zucker, Schenn). They’re an absolute wagon, ready to tear up any opposition in front of them.
Why They Could Crash Out: Buffalo has felt like a team of destiny since Kevyn Adams was fired. They went from out of the playoffs to the top of stacked Atlantic Divison. However, they’ve been riding an absolute heater, with an average PDO of ~1.05 since the start of 2026. This is unsustainable. Though they’ll likely have a favourable match up in the first round, if their luck runs out, they’ll be hard pressed to get out of the East. Nonetheless, this has been a fantastic season for the franchise.
Carolina Huricanes
Why They Could Win: Carolina is a class organization. They’re stable, they put up repeatable performances and their front office routinely fleeces other organizations around the league. They have the top ranked expected goal share and special teams in the league. They have a world class coach and the second best record league wide, On paper, it’s hard to argue that any team in the East is stronger than them. If they make it to the finals, as they should expect to, it’s a coin toss from there.
Why They Could Crash Out: An incredible regular season followed up by a playoff disappointment due to being out-superstarred... where have we seen this before? This is admittedly a lazy argument, but the Hurricanes are STILL lacking a true superstar. Just like they have been for the last decade or so. Why should we expect them to get over the hump this year when the recipe hasn’t changed? Do we really think Nik Ehlers and Brandon Bussi will get them over the hump?
Western Conference
Los Angeles Kings
Why They Could Win: The Kings made a win-now move, acquiring Artemi Panarin at the deadline. He’s had instant chemistry with Adrian Kempe; the pair has outscored opposition 20-10. These are series-changing numbers. The Kuemper/Forsberg tandem has also logged 6 shutouts over the season, most recently over Connor McDavid and the Oilers. When playing well, the Kings can play low-event outscoring hockey. Not entertaining, but a successful recipe for wins when the games get tight.
Why They Could Crash Out: The Kings have 21 regulation wins in the regular season… second least in the entire league. Their goal differential is negative and they’ve scored the 5th least goals in the league. They have a lot of difficulty winning games at 5-on-5. Without 3-on-3 OT and the shootout to rely on in the playoffs, they’re going to have trouble putting up offense, especially since they’re an older and slower team.
Anaheim Ducks
Why They Could Win: Now that Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry are healthy, the Ducks will have their full squad back for the playoffs (assuming Cutter Gauthier makes his return). Before their injuries, they were running away with the Pacific Division. The Ducks young core has taken a huge step this year, and they acquired future Hall-of-Famer John Carlson at the deadline. Lukas Dostal is a top young goaltender. If the stars align, the Ducks are primed to be a surprise out of a weak Pacific Division.
Why They Could Crash Out: The Ducks have slumped badly as the season has progressed, giving up a surefire division win to the veteran Oilers & Golden Knights. As they’ve likely given up home ice advantage in the first round, the young team will be behind the eight ball before the playoffs even start. Even if they miraculously get through the Pacific, they’ll be hugely disadvantaged against whoever wins the Central.
Edmonton Oilers
Why They Could Win: With legitimate Hart and Norris contenders on their squad (not to mention another top 10 player in the world in Leon Draisaitl), the Oilers have the highest end offensive talent in the league on their squad. When they are on their game, no team in the league can keep up with them. There’s every chance Connor McDavid can will his team to a 3rd straight Stanely Cup Finals. Without the Panthers in the East, this could finally be their year.
Why They Could Crash Out: The Oilers have played in a daze throughout most of the season. Their defense has been porous and they’ve been extremely careless with the puck. Draisaitl and Hyman are nursing injuries. More than once, players have made public comments about coaching. The team has brought on Tristan Jarry and Paul Coffey (after letting him go in the offseason), but things still aren’t clicking. Are they fatigued? Poorly coached? Just not good enough? As of today, these Oilers feel a lot less optimistic than the previous two Stanley Cup finalists.
Utah Mammoth
Why They Could Win: A feel good story out of the Central Division, the Mammoth play a good brand of hockey, with no real weaknesses. They outscore opposition, they kill penalties well and they boast a ton of offense (Keller, Guenther, Schmaltz, Cooley, etc). Despite being in the wildcard spot, there’s every chance they’ll have a better record than any other team in the Pacific bracket. This sets them up nicely for a conference finals match up against whichever team survives the Central.
Why They Could Crash Out: Utah’s special teams are middling and their goaltending has covered for a lack of chance suppression throughout the year. They are untested in the playoffs and will be facing off against a very experienced team in the first round. They’re young, developing and are already playing with house money, and it isn’t too far of a stretch to see them hit a wall in the first round.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why They Could Win: The Knights are a different team since they hired John Tortorella, going 6-0-1 with their new coach. They still boast core pieces from their cup winning team, like Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev and they have a top 10 PP and PK. As with any team in the Pacific, they have a more favourable path to the conference finals than any other division. The refs also love Vegas; they were the only team with <200 penalties called against them in the regular season.
Why They Could Crash Out: Any Toronto fan will tell you that Mitch Marner is a playoff choker. A couple of slow games to kick off the first round would have the media buzzing. They also had the second worst goaltending metrics in the league all season long. They’ve gotten a boost since hiring Tortorella, but the numbers tell us this is an unsustainable streak. If Carter Hart stumbles at all, they’ll be an easy out in the first two rounds.
Minnesota Wild
Why They Could Win: The Wild are true contenders for the first time in a long time. Quinn Hughes has breathed new life into the franchise and GM Bill Guerin has regularly made great moves up and down the roster to build depth and two-way skill. Their goaltending tandem is a strength, and their special teams combine for the 4th best rate in the league. Hot take, but I think Matt Boldy is a top 10 player in the world and could have a huge coming out party in the playoffs.
Why They Could Crash Out: The Central is going to be a dog fight. Whoever makes it out of the division will be exhausted and injured. Minnesota has a first round match up against the Dallas Stars, the third ranked team in the league, without home ice advantage. If they somehow manage to win this series, they’ll very likely face the Presidents Trophy winners. Then if they somehow win that, they’ll only be halfway to the cup. Oh, and they only have 30 regulation wins all season, so they’ve been overly dependent on 3v3 hockey to get points.
Dallas Stars
Why They Could Win: The Stars have one of the best GMs in the league. They’re stacked at all positions, boasting star power like Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger. Their special teams are world class (26% PP, 82% PK counting short-handed goals) and they outscore opposition to the tune of 55% at 5v5.
Why They Could Crash Out: See note about Central Division above. The Stars are dealing with the injury bug right now. Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen are both listed as questionable for Game 1. If both of these players miss anytime, Dallas’ depth will be tested to its limits against an upstart Wild team. Dallas has also crashed out in spectacular season to the Oilers in back-to-back conference finals with Jake Oettinger getting outplayed by Stuart Skinner. Will new head coach Glen Gulutzan be able to succeed where Pete DeBoer failed?
Colorado Avalanche
Why They Could Win: The Avs are the class of the NHL. 63% goalshare at even-strength, best goals saved above expected amongst playoff teams, and likely nominees for the Hart, Norris and Jack Adams trophies, as well as employing 100 point scorer Martin Necas. They’ve won with this cluster before and are this year’s betting favourites to win it all again. The team has almost no weaknesses except…
Why They Could Crash Out: The powerplay. In 251 opportunities all season, they scored 45 time, and allowed 13 shorties. +32 in 251 attempts is woefully awful. Every team except for the Flyers was more successful with the man advantage. When so many playoff games come down to one shot, Colorado’s inability to convert on the man advantage could be the difference between playoff success and a disappointing failure.
