What is going on with Auston Matthews?
Auston Matthews has been a polarizing figure in Toronto this season. The former Hart Trophy winner is in the midst of a down-season with 27 points in 33 games, well below his established standards.
The theories on his play have been wide-ranging: Is he dealing with a chronic injury? Is he not the same without Mitch Marner? Do Craig Berube’s systems not suit his style? Does he not care?
With the Maple Leafs on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Matthews’ performance has become a crisis in the eyes of the Toronto media. Some outlets have even kicked around the idea of trading him, something that seemed unthinkable just a few months ago.
Well, let’s try to put aside the sensationalist takes and take a bit of a deeper look at Auston Matthews this season to see if we can figure out what is going on in his game.
Let’s take a look at the last three seasons to see what we can find:
| Year | Goals For | xGoals For |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 67.0% | 57.0% |
| 2023-24 | 60.5% | 56.2% |
| 2024-25 | 58.0% | 55.6% |
| 2025-26 | 58.1% | 49.3% |
Matthews has always been a premium even-strength outscorer, and he continues to do so this season. However, his expected goals (which means the quality & quantity of chances that happen when he’s on the ice) show a concerning trend, decreasing over the past 3 seasons before falling off a cliff this year. Given Matthews’ elite finishing skills, it’s a good bet that he’ll continue to beat the math, but he isn’t tilting the ice the way he used to.
| Year | 5v5 (vs Elites) | 5v4 | 4v5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 15:48 (31%) | 3:34 | 0:03 |
| 2023-24 | 15:48 (39%) | 3:15 | 0:41 |
| 2024-25 | 14:34 (48%) | 2:52 | 1:33 |
| 2025-26 | 15:25 (48%) | 2:49 | 1:23 |
The contrast of Matthews’ deployment between the Keefe era and the Berube era is stark. First, Berube uses Matthews much more on the PK. This uses some of Matthews’ energy during a defensive portion of the game. Second, Berube uses Matthews far more against elite competition (i.e. first lines & top pairs) than Keefe. With fewer soft matchups, Matthews needs to earn his scoring against the league’s top players.
Both of these changes help the Leafs defensively, but hurt Matthews’ offensive stats.
| Year | 5v5 Points | 5v5 Shot Attempts | 5v4 Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 2.67 | 20.48 | 6.36 |
| 2023-24 | 2.86 | 21.98 | 5.92 |
| 2024-25 | 2.34 | 19.06 | 7.49 |
| 2025-26 | 1.89 | 17.58 | 3.86 |
With the context in usage above, it’s no surprise to see his 5v5 scoring rates dip over the past two seasons, since Berube took over the team. However, what isn’t explained yet is why he’s shooting and scoring less this year than last. One assumes it isn’t a change in systems. We’ll look at this below.
While the 5v5 trend is a slow burn, the powerplay has absolutely collapsed this year. They’re sitting 27th in PP% and have only scored 15 goals on the man advantage this year. To add insult to injury, they’ve had the second fewest power play opportunities in the league to date. Either they’re not getting the whistle, or they don’t have the puck enough to get hooked, tripped or interfered with. Taking a closer look at the numbers, the Leafs PP has been unlucky so far this year. They’re shooting only 9%, compared to 14-17% over the three previous seasons. Look for Matthew’s PP stats to increase going into the New Year.
| Playing | Goals For | xGoals For | Goals per 60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Marner | 58.7% | 54.7% | 3.44 |
| Without Marner | 57.1% | 48.7% | 2.82 |
One of the bigger narratives this season is how Matthews is adjusting to life without Mitch Marner. Looking at Matthews’ numbers since 2024-25 with and without his former linemate shows that Matthews is being forced to reinvent himself.
His actual goal differential is quite similar, but how he gets there is night and day. Marner and Matthews were an offensive duo, scoring a ton while giving up lots (but not as much) on the other end. Now, Matthews is playing more like a shutdown center, scoring less and giving up almost nothing. Instead of playing 5-3, end-to-end hockey, Matthews is now playing 2-1, tight-checking hockey.
The other thing that sticks out is Marner’s contribution to Matthews’ chance creation. Matthews’ generational finishing will keep him in the black, but Marner’s ability to get Matthews the puck in dangerous areas of the ice is clearly missed. Without an elite distributor, the Leafs will continue to struggle to get superstar point production out of Matthews.
| Year | Hardest Shot | Max Speed |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 94.1 | 22.5 |
| 2023-24 | 91.4 | 22.5 |
| 2024-25 | 90.6 | 22.5 |
| 2025-26 | 86.8 | 21.6 |
Perhaps the most alarming part of Matthews’ season is found via NHL EDGE data. There isn’t much to say here other than Matthews shot and skating speed have both slipped. He’s lost almost 8MPH on his shot speed and his skating has dipped below the 22MPH mark, which is used by the NHL to measure “speed bursts”.
At just 28 years old, it’s unlikely Matthews has hit the wall due to age. This looks like injury to me. Either way, this is a legitimate cause for concern.
We can say a few things for certain:
He’s still elite at finishing, but he’s creating fewer quality scoring chances at even strength. The departure of Mitch Marner is certainly hurting his productivity.
The Leafs have a poor, unlucky powerplay this year. They also aren’t drawing penalties. Matthews has lost his primary source of “easy” production here.
Berube uses Matthews as a shutdown centre, hard matching him against other teams top lines and giving him significant PK minutes.
Matthews is likely playing hurt as evidenced by drops in shot and skating speeds.
Will the Matthews fall-off continue for the rest of the year?
Matthews will probably end up with a disappointing point total this season, but I’m confident that we’ve seen the worst of it. He’ll likely bounce back to near a point-per-game just due to the unsustainably poor powerplay so far this year (a new PP coach might help too).
However, until the Leafs acquire another high-end playmaker who can feed Matthews in dangerous areas, his 5v5 dominance is unlikely to return to levels he’s shown earlier in his career.
Not so predictable prediction
After the Milan Olympics, with the playoffs stretching out of reach, the Leafs will shut down Matthews for the season, fix whatever is ailing him, and pray they pick in the top 5 so that they keep their 2026 first rounder they traded to Boston in the Carlo deal.
