Three Players I Would Target on the Ottawa Senators
Oof, what a week it’s been for the Senators! Scandals on X, statements from Steve Staios, going 0-3 (including an 8-2 blowout), and now sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic has the organization reeling.
Despite strong seasons from most of their core, it’s hard not to imagine this team making some trades in the near future. On the 32 Thoughts podcast this week, Elliotte Friedman said:
“If I’m a player on the Ottawa Senators and I’m named there, I’m walking into the organization and I’m saying, ‘Get me out of here. I did not sign up for this. If my family was involved, I would say, ‘Get me out of here right now.’ That is too much.”
Pretty damning words from hockey’s biggest insider, so this situation is likely far from over.
If I were a GM in the league, I’d be all over this situation. There’s blood in the water, and there are likely some value deals to be had. Here are three realistic Senators I’d be looking to deal for.
Claude Giroux, RW
Production: 43, 9-21-30
Contract: 1 year, $2M (+ Bonuses), NMC
Age: 37 years old
Despite having a NMC in his contract, and Ottawa being his hometown, I think there’s a chance Claude Giroux could move before the deadline. There’s no doubt he thinks about his lack of a Stanley Cup on his resume and winning at the end of his career would cement his legacy, and guarantee him a spot in the Hall of Fame. I believe there is a reasonable chance to believe the upcoming UFA would waive to go to a contender.
Giroux has had a strong season, being used heavily by the Sens in all three game states. Offensively, he’s playing his best hockey in the past three seasons with 2.17 pts/60 at 5-on-5 (supported by strong underlying numbers). He also helps chip in on Ottawa’s powerplay.
Defensively, he’s been strong at suppressing high-danger chances against (85th percentile in the league), despite his actual on-ice goals against being elevated due to Ottawa’s poor goaltending situation.
Giroux spends 44% of his even strength TOI playing against the other team’s top players, a very high number, showing Travis Green’s trust in his game.
As a pure rental, I think Giroux could be available for a strong but not elite prospect and a 2nd-3rd round pick. I’m sure Ottawa would be open to retain some salary too, if it increased their return on the deal.
Giroux would fit nicely on any team looking for complimentary outscoring at the deadline.
Jordan Spence, RD
Production: 34, 2-12-14
Contract: 1 year, $1.5M, RFA
Age: 24 years old
The Sens astutely picked up Jordan Spence for a 3rd and a 6th at last year’s draft. He was undervalued by the Kings, and has shown very strongly this year for the Senators. He’s running a 61% expected goals for at 5-on-5 and Ottawa is easily winning their minutes with him on the ice.
Despite that, he’s being used in a fairly sheltered role by the Sens (16:08 at 5-on-5, mostly against lesser competition). In the 131 minutes he’s played against the other teams top lines, Ottawa is getting 67% (!!!) of the dangerous chances. That’s not a huge sample size, but his numbers shine.
It’s worth calling out that Spence has zero powerplay points this year, despite being a mainstay on Ottawa’s second unit. Some of this is bad luck, but this is an area of the game we can’t expect him to be a major contributor in.
With the established Artem Zub, and sometimes Nick Jensen (who isn’t very good!) being played ahead of him in the line-up, it’s reasonable to wonder if Travis Green is making the same error as Jim Hiller and the Kings before him by undervaluing what Spence brings to the table.
Spence is still early in his NHL career, and will be an RFA in the offseason. The extra years of control, reasonable production and will likely cost a 2nd round pick or a mid-level prospect.
A young, savvy, non-contending team in need of a righty D-man (think Philly, Utah, San Jose) would be the most likely to target Spence.
Brady Tkachuk, LW
Production: 26, 8-13-21
Contract: 3 years, $8.2M, NMC
Age: 26 years old
I said this article would be realistic above. While Sens captain Brady Tkachuk has been considered untouchable his entire career, him being mentioned in this week’s rumour along with Friedman’s musings might mean he could be mulling a trade request.
I think the Team USA Olympian would be a targeted asset for every team in the league. He’s produced throughout his career, he has a reasonable cap hit, and he’s a big game player. Intangibly, he brings a combination of physicality, fearlessness and skill that few players in the league can match. He’s a top line power-forward, and his fame would help drive revenue for whichever team he plays on.
After a down-year in 2024-25, Brady is back to producing at established levels of over 2.00 pts/60 at 5-on-5 (2.44 this year, 91st percentile). He’s also a fixture on Ottawa’s powerplay. Brady’s superpower has always been generating offense through shot volume. This year, he’s 2nd in the league attempting 21.57 shots per 60.
The big knock against Tkachuk is his defensive responsibility. The Senators have been notoriously leaky while he’s been on the ice, scoring only 43% of the goals. However, he’s gotten terrible goaltending support and his expected goals are at 62%. It looks like he’s due for regression if the goaltending situation resolves itself.
Acquiring Tkachuk, even with a trade request would NOT be cheap, but maybe not as expensive as Sens fans would hope. In this scenario, he’d be requesting a trade and his NMC would allow only his desired teams to make offers. Given the extra years of control, but lower value than Quinn Hughes, I think a trade for Brady Tkachuk would look quite similar: 3-4 assets, comprising of high-end prospects and first round picks.
For what it’s worth, I think he’d be a fantastic fit on the Bruins, Flyers or Panthers (I know, I know).
Honourable Mentions
Here’s a few more guys I’d also consider targeting:
Mike Amadio, RW: Shutdown winger who also PKs.
Nikolas Matinpalo, RD: Depth defender, strong defensive metrics.
Artem Zub, RD: Elite defensive d-man, minute muncher, PKer.
After this week’s chaos, the only thing for certain is that the status quo is likely not an option in Ottawa. With the locker room under a microscope, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Senators roster we see after the trade deadline looks quite a bit different than the ones playing against the Panthers tonight.
